A vehicle expert has released a comprehensive analysis of expected holiday traffic patterns for Christmas 2025, giving travelers unprecedented insight into the best and worst times to hit the road during one of America's busiest travel periods.
Todd Bialaszewski, car buying expert at Sell My Car Online, analyzed traffic data for 2024 from AAA and INRIX to forecast which days will see the heaviest congestion during the 2025 holiday season, when Christmas falls on a Thursday.
"With a record 120+ million Americans expected to travel for the 2025 holidays, timing is everything," Bialaszewski explains. "Our analysis shows Sunday, December 28th will likely be the single worst day on American roadways, with extreme congestion between 3-8 PM as millions of travelers head home after Christmas celebrations."
The forecast, adapted from AAA/INRIX traffic pattern analysis and adjusted for the 2025 calendar, reveals several critical travel windows that could significantly impact holiday plans.
"The period between December 19th and December 23rd will see progressively worsening traffic as we approach Christmas," notes Bialaszewski. "Friday the 19th kicks off the getaway rush with heavy congestion from 1-8 PM, and conditions deteriorate through the weekend."
The analysis highlights that Christmas Day itself (Thursday, December 25th) typically sees light traffic throughout most of the day, making it one of the best travel options for those with flexible plans.
According to Bialaszewski, morning departures consistently offer the best travel experience: "Our data conclusively shows that leaving before 11 AM provides dramatically better driving conditions on almost every holiday travel day. This morning advantage exists because most travelers don't get on the road until after lunch."
High-Risk Travel Windows to Avoid
- Friday, December 19: 1-8 PM (heavy outbound traffic)
- Sunday, December 21: 2-7 PM (major congestion in metropolitan areas)
- Wednesday, December 24: 12-6 PM (last-minute travelers and shoppers)
- Friday, December 26: 1-7 PM (first return wave plus shoppers)
- Sunday, December 28: 3-8 PM (extremely heavy - biggest return day)
- Wednesday, December 31: 1-7 PM (New Year's Eve preparations)
Metropolitan areas are expected to face significantly greater delays than the national average, with some cities potentially seeing travel times more than double during peak periods.
Optimal Travel Windows
- Early mornings (before 11 AM) on any day
- Christmas Day (Thursday, December 25) - light traffic most of the day
- New Year's Day (Thursday, January 1) - light traffic until mid-afternoon
- The period between December 27-30 generally sees lighter traffic between return surges
Bialaszewski offers additional advice for holiday travelers: "Beyond timing, consider alternative routes that avoid major highways during peak hours. Navigation apps that provide real-time traffic updates can help you dynamically adjust your route. And remember that stopping every two hours not only improves safety but can help you avoid the worst traffic waves."
The analysis predicts that approximately 107 million Americans will travel by car during the 2025 holiday season, continuing the trend of auto travel dominating holiday transportation choices.
"Many travelers, particularly families, prefer the flexibility and relative affordability of road trips," says Bialaszewski. "But that flexibility only truly benefits you if you use it to avoid the worst congestion periods. Leaving just a few hours earlier can save you hours of frustration."
For holiday travelers planning ahead for 2025, the expert recommends treating the forecast as planning guidance until AAA releases its official 2025 holiday travel forecast next December.
Best and Worst Times to Travel by Car - Christmas 2025
| Date | Worst Travel Time | Best Travel Time |
|---|---|---|
| Friday, Dec 19, 2025 | 1:00 – 8:00 PM | Before 11:00 AM |
| Saturday, Dec 20, 2025 | 3:00 – 7:00 PM | Before 1:00 PM |
| Sunday, Dec 21, 2025 | 2:00 – 7:00 PM | Before 12:00 PM |
| Monday, Dec 22, 2025 | 1:00 – 6:00 PM | Before 11:00 AM |
| Tuesday, Dec 23, 2025 | 1:00 – 6:00 PM | Before 11:00 AM |
| Wednesday, Dec 24, 2025 (Christmas Eve) | 12:00 – 6:00 PM | Early Morning |
| Thursday, Dec 25, 2025 (Christmas Day) | Minimal Traffic Impact Expected | — |
| Friday, Dec 26, 2025 | 1:00 – 7:00 PM | Before 11:00 AM |
| Saturday, Dec 27, 2025 | 2:00 – 7:00 PM | Before 12:00 PM |
| Sunday, Dec 28, 2025 | 3:00 – 8:00 PM | Morning |
| Monday, Dec 29, 2025 | 1:00 – 6:00 PM | Before 11:00 AM |
| Tuesday, Dec 30, 2025 | 1:00 – 6:00 PM | Before 11:00 AM |
| Wednesday, Dec 31, 2025 (New Year’s Eve) | 1:00 – 7:00 PM | Before 11:00 AM |
| Thursday, Jan 1, 2026 (New Year’s Day) | Minimal Traffic Impact Expected | — |
| Friday, Jan 2, 2026 | 4:00 – 8:00 PM | Before 3:00 PM |
FAQ
Is it really better to drive on Christmas Day?
Yes. AAA/INRIX report that interstates and highways are typically clearer Christmas Day compared with the day before, when the outbound surge peaks.
What about weather?
Weather can override typical patterns. Check conditions and advisories before departure and adjust departure time earlier when storms threaten.
How can I avoid the worst of it?
- Leave early morning (before 11 a.m.) on peak days.
- Shift your return to morning, or to less popular days when possible.
- Use real-time navigation that accounts for live incidents and metered ramps.
Methodology and Sources
We compiled AAA year-end and Christmas releases and INRIX guidance on best/worst drive windows, then shifted those patterns to the 2025 calendar. This preserves the weekday and time-of-day dynamics that recur annually.
- AAA Year-End Forecast, Dec 11, 2024.
- INRIX release/pages on holiday congestion windows and planning tips.
- Calendar confirmation: Christmas Day 2025 falls on Thursday, Dec 25.
